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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32016/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-20T12:32Z (-7.55h, +9.12h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/07/16 22:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 13:20Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 4:00
POS Midpoint: 11:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 12:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.78
Travel Time: ~6.78 * 12:40 = 85:52

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-20T12:32Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/07/17 13:58Z
Lead Time: 61.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-17T22:54Z
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